| 項目 | Paul Skenes (USA) | Roki Sasaki (Japan) |
|---|---|---|
| ERA | 2.95 | 2.10 |
| WHIP | 1.05 | 0.92 |
| FIP | 2.85 | 2.40 |
| K/9 | 11.5 | 12.8 |
| BB/9 | 2.6 | 2.2 |
| 対右OPS | .580 | .520 |
| 補正項目 | USA | Japan | 差分 |
|---|---|---|---|
| チームElo (ベース) | 1820 | 1845 | -25 |
| ホーム補正 | +18 | 0 | +18 |
| 先発投手調整 | +28 | +42 | -14 |
| ブルペン疲労 | +8 | +12 | -4 |
| パークファクター | -2 | -2 | +0 |
| 守備UZR/150 補正 | +6 | +10 | -4 |
| 打線フォーム (OPS差) | +18 | +14 | +4 |
| 合計Elo差 | — | — | -25 (Japan優位) |
合計Elo差-25はJapan勝率約52%相当。上記補正の合成で予測勝率を導出。
| シーズン | 試合数 | USA勝 | Japan勝 | USA勝率 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WBC 2017 Pool | 1 | 1 | 0 | 100% |
| WBC 2023 Final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
| Tokyo Olympics 2021 Final | 1 | 0 | 1 | 0% |
In recent international title games Japan holds a 2-1 edge; the 2023 final still echoes in baseball history.
Roki Sasaki, perfect-game pitcher in NPB, will start with his triple-digit heater. The Olympic-style 6-inning limit may force Japan into a bullpen game by the 7th.
Reigning Cy Young finalist Skenes brings a 100+mph fastball and splinker against Japan's most disciplined hitters.
Japan can deploy Ohtani, Imanaga and Yamamoto as relievers; USA leans on Suarez and Hader.
Ohtani is expected to DH but could face Skenes; manager Kuriyama may use him in relief for a Trout-style finish.
AI予測52% × フェアオッズ1.92 = 0.998。市場オッズ2.05以上ならEV+。
Three factors: Sasaki's strikeout upside, Japan's deeper bullpen, and contact discipline against power arms.
LoanDepot Park is fast and home-friendly, but Japan's roster is older and championship-tested.
Through the 2023 cycle and the 2026 group stage, the model is hitting at 71% (5 of 7).
Take Japan at 2.05 or better, fade USA above 2.30 in small size.